{"id":1521,"date":"2023-09-28T07:59:13","date_gmt":"2023-09-28T07:59:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/girbaulab.com\/elisabet-rosello-postfuturear-club-de-innovadores\/"},"modified":"2023-10-03T13:31:30","modified_gmt":"2023-10-03T13:31:30","slug":"elisabet-rosello-fundadora-de-postfuturear-club-dinnovadors","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/labs.100x100.net\/projects\/girbaulab\/ca\/elisabet-rosello-fundadora-de-postfuturear-club-dinnovadors\/","title":{"rendered":"Elisabet Rosell\u00f3, fundadora de Postfuturear, al Club d\u2019Innovadors de Girbau LAB"},"content":{"rendered":"

El 28 de setembre va tenir lloc una nova sessi\u00f3 del Club d\u2019Innovadors<\/a> que va comptar amb la pres\u00e8ncia d\u2019Elisabet Rosell\u00f3, fundadora de Postfuturear<\/a>, com a ponent convidada.<\/p>\n

Amb el t\u00edtol \u201cNous frameworks per emmarcar l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 d\u2019un sector industrial\u201d, l\u2019Elisabet va posar en relleu que els canvis que anomenem \u201cRevolucions\u201d i els moments d\u2019impasse poden ser qualsevol cosa tret de predictibles, i acostumen a anar acompanyats d\u2019un canvi d\u2019ulleres. Amb l\u2019Elisabet, reflexionem sobre aquests i altres temes de bracet de l\u2019enfocament de Postfuturear\u00ae, que combina diferents eines per incorporar aquestes noves ulleres en el disseny d\u2019estrat\u00e8gies d\u2019innovaci\u00f3 efectives que s\u2019ajustin a cada organitzaci\u00f3 i al seu entorn.<\/p>\n

L\u2019Elisabet Rosell\u00f3 \u00e9s llicenciada en Hist\u00f2ria per la UB, ha treballat anteriorment com a assistent de recerca sobre nous models econ\u00f2mics emergents, comunitats d\u2019innovaci\u00f3 FLOSSD a l\u2019IGOP-UAB, i posteriorment a l\u2019IN3-UOC, al departament de Public Affairs com a Project Lead d\u2019un projecte d\u2019innovaci\u00f3 p\u00fablica a Kreab. Ha sigut analista de tend\u00e8ncies i facilitadora de tallers a diferents ag\u00e8ncies creatives com a freelance, col\u00b7laboradora en mitjans i llibres de tecnologia i processos tecno-socials, i filosofia emergent. A m\u00e9s, ha sigut comiss\u00e0ria de diverses exposicions.<\/p>\n

Ha aparegut a les llistes de Forbes dels 100 Creatius del m\u00f3n dels negocis a Espanya 2023; i dels 40 futuristes d\u2019Espanya (a les llistes del 2021 i del 2022).<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1.-Per qu\u00e8 Postfuturear?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Segons a quines \u00e0rees de les nostres societats, uns anys enrere el futur es veia (i es continua veient) m\u00e9s fosc, dif\u00edcil, dist\u00f2pic\u2026 Fins i tot malgrat que altres col\u00b7lectius el poguessin veure amb optimisme. Hist\u00f2ricament, es diu que \u00e9s la fe en el progr\u00e9s, o com a m\u00ednim en futurs brillants i prometedors, es va acabar a partir de la recuperaci\u00f3 econ\u00f2mica que va seguir a la Segona Guerra Mundial. O b\u00e9 es veia m\u00e9s tem\u00e0tica dist\u00f2pica i apocal\u00edptica als blockbusters del cinema de ci\u00e8ncia-ficci\u00f3 (com ara a 2001, una odissea a l\u2019espai<\/em>), o es refregien els imaginaris gestats durant la Segona Revoluci\u00f3 Industrial al segle xix, habitats per robots, ciutats intel\u00b7ligents plenes de gratacels i carreteres impossibles, cotxes voladors\u2026 Per\u00f2 amb molts menys imaginaris nous que encaixessin amb les noves necessitats i realitats… De vegades, a aquest moment d\u2019inflexi\u00f3 cultural i de ruptura amb les velles promeses se l\u2019ha anomenat \u201cPost-futur\u201d (una altra post-cosa!).<\/p>\n

Aix\u00ed doncs, la pregunta pr\u00e0ctica que vaig plantejar quan vaig comen\u00e7ar a gestar-lo \u00e9s: si el diagn\u00f2stic fa temps que est\u00e0 fet, ens costa generar nous models i imaginaris de futurs possibles, realistes i que ens entusiasmin (sense insistir necess\u00e0riament en aquests vells escenaris envernissats de modernitat), a la intersecci\u00f3 d\u2019una emerg\u00e8ncia clim\u00e0tica, i fer transformacions profundes en l\u2019economia i la societat, aleshores, ara qu\u00e8? Sense furgar en m\u00e9s noms, el plantejament consisteix en aprofundir i aplicar nous enfocaments per aconseguir-ho. I tot plegat va derivar en un verb actiu: post-futurejar, per\u00f2 sense el gui\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Despr\u00e9s de construir o dissenyar escenaris de futurs, pron\u00f2stics, an\u00e0lisis i diagn\u00f2stics de tend\u00e8ncies, com ho tradu\u00efm tot plegat en acci\u00f3? Com planifiquem, fins i tot, en contextos vol\u00e0tils i de gran incertesa (per tant, amb an\u00e0lisis de tend\u00e8ncies m\u00e9s febles)?<\/p>\n

Despr\u00e9s d\u2019anys d\u2019estudiar, fer recerca i practicant amb els millors (fent recerca a la universitat, tamb\u00e9 al Centre for Postnormal Policy and Futures Studies, o a consultores i ag\u00e8ncies\u2026) en \u00e0rees com la prospectiva, models de negoci emergents, ci\u00e8ncies socials aplicades, Systems Thinking i innovaci\u00f3, quan encara ni tan sols es parlava de \u201cdisseny de futurs\u201d (al voltant de 2016) vaig comen\u00e7ar a donar forma a Postfuturear fins a mitjans de 2019, quan ja va derivar en una ag\u00e8ncia o oficina per servir altres empreses, el sector p\u00fablic, cl\u00fasters\u2026<\/p>\n

2.-Molts escenaris i\u2026 quants camins?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Normalment, quan es desenvolupa l\u2019an\u00e0lisi del que hauran de beure els escenaris de futurs de prospectiva, es fan basats en dades i informaci\u00f3 del present, i d\u2019un passat m\u00e9s o menys recent. Hi ha diferents m\u00e8todes i tipus d\u2019escenaris, i en funci\u00f3 del que calgui, s\u2019apliquen uns o altres. Tots han de tenir en com\u00fa una connexi\u00f3 raonable amb el present, un \u201ccam\u00ed\u201d o unes instruccions de com arribar-hi.<\/p>\n

Si nom\u00e9s es busca inspiraci\u00f3, amb m\u00e8todes normatius m\u00e9s \u00e0gils i r\u00e0pids n\u2019hi pot haver prou, de l\u2019estil Design Thinking. Si es busca entendre diferents possibilitats materials o realistes, incloent les probables, o les plausibles (les que esperem que haurien de passar, o que creiem que realment tenen sentit i no s\u00f3n \u201cal\u00b7lucinacions\u201d), per\u00f2 tamb\u00e9 les m\u00e9s inversemblants per\u00f2 encara possibles. Amb aquests escenaris es pot treballar un coneixement m\u00e9s gran del que est\u00e0 passant en el mateix present, donar sentit a la nostra posici\u00f3 tant en el mercat com a la societat\u2026<\/p>\n

Si, en canvi, ens proposem donar forma a una Visi\u00f3 que es quedi nom\u00e9s en un lema bonic, sin\u00f3 que faci de guia o de refer\u00e8ncia de l\u2019acci\u00f3 estrat\u00e8gica de llarg espectre, aleshores parlarem d\u2019escenaris \u201cEstel polar\u201d, que \u00e9s un \u00e0mbit que en innovaci\u00f3 social tamb\u00e9 es treballa molt.<\/p>\n

En general, no hi ha evid\u00e8ncies cient\u00edfiques que el futur estigui predeterminat cap a un \u00fanic futur possible, sin\u00f3 que s\u2019obren diferents desenvolupaments possibles. Per aix\u00f2, i com a m\u00ednim des dels anys 1950, es treballa amb un m\u00ednim variat d\u2019escenaris, que s\u00f3n hip\u00f2tesis d\u2019all\u00f2 possible en forma de narracions, objectes f\u00edsics, per\u00f2 \u201cimaginaris\u201d o prototipus conceptuals, fins i tot curtmetratges\u2026 La creativitat va del bracet de les dades i de la part emocional.<\/p>\n

3.-Quins s\u00f3n els temes que m\u00e9s t\u2019interessa explorar? I els m\u00e9s comuns?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Ens acostumen a interessar, a mi i al meu grup, els temes que precisament estan generant grans transformacions, fins i tot si no les veiem o copsem en el dia a dia, per\u00f2 que poden ser significatius dins d\u2019un temps. Per exemple, l\u2019energia i la transici\u00f3 energ\u00e8tica s\u00f3n un \u201ctemacle\u201d \u2013com m\u2019agrada anomenar als temes significatius. L\u2019aigua, \u00faltimament, ha sigut un altre aspecte que ha aparegut en projectes i col\u00b7laboracions del darrer any \u2013suposo que per motius obvis. En general, no nom\u00e9s m\u2019interessen les tend\u00e8ncies emergents \u2013amb menys inter\u00e8s en els hypes<\/em>\u2014, sin\u00f3 sobretot les que anomeno \u201cestructurals\u201d o que actuen com a pilars de la societat, l\u2019economia i la vida. I no se\u2019ls pot prestar atenci\u00f3, malgrat estar canviant.<\/p>\n

De manera transversal, quan puc i podem, treballem marcs de feina propis partint de q\u00fcestions importants en ci\u00e8ncies socials, filosofia i innovaci\u00f3, com les difer\u00e8ncies de perspectives i formes de \u201cveure\u201d o \u201cllegir\u201d el m\u00f3n, i les profundes i quotidianes implicacions que poden tenir en processos com ara la presa de decisions, la negociaci\u00f3 de projectes de transformaci\u00f3\u2026<\/p>\n

Segons sigui la fase o projectes que tinguem entre les mans, ens interessen tant les tend\u00e8ncies i processos profunds, com la millora de l\u2019impacte de la nostra feina i metodologies. O fins i tot innovar en les formes de veure com actuar<\/p>\n

4.-Com entens la innovaci\u00f3?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Sense m\u00e9s complicacions, els moments en els que generem una novetat humana prou significativa. \u00c9s a dir, \u00e9s el mateix una innovaci\u00f3 t\u00e8cnica, que una innovaci\u00f3 organitzativa, que una de cultural\u2026<\/p>\n

La realitat \u00e9s que les innovacions acostumen a ser m\u00e9s aviat sist\u00e8miques: per exemple, Her\u00f3 d\u2019Alexandria va inventar coses tan emocionants i tecnol\u00f2giques com la m\u00e0quina de vapor (Eol\u00edpila) o les portes mec\u00e0niques (per a un temple), per\u00f2 els seus invents no es van entendre ni aplicar perqu\u00e8 no tenien la funci\u00f3 que fa 200 anys o avui en dia els donem sist\u00e8micament.<\/p>\n

En canvi, Internet va comen\u00e7ar a escalar en un m\u00f3n ja per s\u00ed molt mediatitzat i globalitzat; la teleconnexi\u00f3 immediata se sentia com una necessitat; i a poc a poc es van anar afegint, per part de comunitats de recerca i gent molt pionera, com si fossin capes de noves t\u00e8cniques, protocols i altres conceptes que van anar obrint cada cop m\u00e9s les seves possibilitats. Despr\u00e9s van venir els models de negoci dels anys 1990, 2000, la crisi de les punt com, i nous h\u00e0bits i comportaments de socialitzaci\u00f3, i tot plegat es va anar retroalimentant amb noves idees i possibilitats (i limitacions i legislaci\u00f3 adaptada, \u00e9s clar) fins arribar al que \u00e9s avui en dia. La innovaci\u00f3 no t\u00e9 mai un \u00fanic gust, \u00e9s sist\u00e8mica, i el que li cal no \u00e9s un geni, sin\u00f3 un esceni<\/em> o conjunt de persones.<\/p>\n

5.-Pots avan\u00e7ar un possible escenari per a la ind\u00fastria de la bugaderia d\u2019aqu\u00ed a 5 anys?<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Ara \u00a0estam i estic atenta a canvis profunds, menys evidents i de vegades, inc\u00f2modes. Poden ser aparentment sobtats (o, m\u00e9s ben dit, n\u2019observem les manifestacions de cop, i de sobte, \u201cexisteixen\u201d), per\u00f2 ja fa anys, fins i tot d\u00e8cades, que estan mutant o variant.<\/p>\n

Per a l\u2019economia actual, 5 anys \u00e9s bastant de temps, i pel nostre dia a dia, \u00e9s molt (no ens costa imaginar fins i tot com estarem d\u2019aqu\u00ed a un any?). Per\u00f2 per a aquests processos m\u00e9s lents i estructurals (que poden ser tant de medi ambient, com tecnol\u00f2gics, com econ\u00f2mics\u2026) pot ser no sigui tant de temps.<\/p>\n

A l\u2019\u00e0mbit de la bugaderia nom\u00e9s hi he entrat una vegada en el passat, aix\u00ed que no n\u2019estic gaire informada \u2013encara que en sigui, \u00f2bviament, usu\u00e0ria.<\/p>\n

Ara potser tenim el cap en les IA, especialment les que generen text i imatge o v\u00eddeo, per\u00f2 els aven\u00e7os d\u2019altres menes de tecnologia d\u2019IA a la ind\u00fastria s\u00f3n m\u00e9s lents i, no sense falta de motius, m\u00e9s prudents. Per tant, si hi ha canvis importants, potser no es vegin tant en el producte final.<\/p>\n

Sens dubte, els \u201ctemacles\u201d que segurament interseccionen amb bugaderia i higiene s\u00f3n sobretot l\u2019energia (tant per produir com per als usos en consum, la factura bimensual, etc), mat\u00e8ries primeres i l\u2019aigua.<\/p>\n

L\u2019aigua \u00e9s un bon exemple de canvis de mindset que podrien arribar. Estem veient que el r\u00e8gim de l\u2019aigua podria canviar a mig i llarg termini, a part de les sequeres m\u00e9s circumstancials, i tenint en compte que al planeta sempre hi ha hagut zones amb menys acc\u00e9s a l\u2019aigua, com ara les zones \u00e0rides de la pen\u00ednsula ar\u00e0biga.<\/p>\n

Aix\u00ed, podr\u00edem veure sequeres temporals per\u00f2 que activin a diferents governs una actitud de m\u00e9s adaptabilitat i flexibilitat, disposant mesures, restriccions i tecnologies (com ara les dessalinitzadores) ocasionalment, per\u00f2 altres zones que es puguin \u201cariditzar\u201d a llarg termini, es podria canviar a m\u00e9s llarg termini la relaci\u00f3 i els usos de l\u2019aigua, les restriccions \u201cper defecte\u201d, etc.<\/p>\n

En aquest sentit, parlar\u00edem d\u2019un mapa d\u2019usos m\u00e9s variat, on, combinat amb altres factors, potser hi hauria m\u00e9s prefer\u00e8ncia per serveis col\u00b7lectius (per potenciar l\u2019estalvi d\u2019energia i l\u2019efici\u00e8ncia h\u00eddrica) com les bugaderies d\u2019autoservei; una aposta per possibles nous teixits anti-taques, antimicrobians o anti-altres-situacions (a mesura que vagin apareixent)\u2026<\/p>\n

Seran 5 anys transicionant a noves perspectives.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

El 28 de setembre va tenir lloc una nova sessi\u00f3 del Club d\u2019Innovadors que va comptar amb la pres\u00e8ncia d\u2019Elisabet Rosell\u00f3, fundadora de Postfuturear, com a ponent convidada. Amb el t\u00edtol \u201cNous frameworks per emmarcar l\u2019evoluci\u00f3 d\u2019un sector industrial\u201d, l\u2019Elisabet va posar en relleu que els canvis que anomenem \u201cRevolucions\u201d i els moments d\u2019impasse poden […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1515,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nElisabet Rosell\u00f3, fundadora de Postfuturear, al Club d\u2019Innovadors de Girbau LAB - Girbau LAB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Elisabet Rosell\u00f3, fundadora de Postfuturear, va participar com a ponent convidada en una nova edici\u00f3 en el Club d'Innovadors de Girbau LAB\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ca_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" 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